Lesson 1

Apuntes

Lesson 1 Basic Probability Reading: Loss Models Fourth Edition 3.1–3.3 Before you start this lesson . . . Have you read the preface? You may be familiar with textbooks with long prefaces which assume that you’re already familiar with all the material. These prefaces contain reflections of the author on the course, stories about how the book came to be, acknowledgements to the author’s family for having patience while the author was ignoring them and working on the book, etc. The preface to this manual is nothing like that! The preface is short and has information you need immediately to use this manual. It will answer questions such as: • How the hell am I supposed to know all the moments of the gamma distribution? (First example in this lesson) • The author’s solution to his exercise looks wrong! Is there an errata list? • The author’s solution to his exercise looks wrong, and there’s nothing in the errata list! What do I do now? • The author’s solution to his exercise looks right. Which of my friends should I thank for that? • I remember reading someplace in the manual about a Fisher information matrix, but can’t remem- ber where it is. What do I do now? The preface also has...